I think people have become too married to the idea that AR/VR needs to be ubiquitous to be considered a success to the point where it’s distorted our whole thinking about the product category. This is why their ideal headset needs to be priced in the mid-hundreds, because that’s the price where ubiquity is possible. A $3000 headset, no matter how good, can’t become ubiquitous and therefore has already lost before even entering the race with that narrow line of thinking.

This “ubiquitous or bust” bar of success applies doubly for Apple because of the iPhone. For many, everything Apple does is framed by the success of the iPhone. They don’t want to hear that the iPhone’s ubiquity is largely because the need for a pocket computer turned out to be ubiquitous. They singularly focus on whether such-and-such Apple product is as ubiquitous as the iPhone, then write it off when it isn’t. Folks who still overlook the Apple Watch, a device that topped 10 million in sales and dominates in marketshare, are going to be apoplectic over a headset that doesn’t hit a million sales in its first year.

Along the lines of “Apple never releases two new products the same way”, I don’t think we have a model for how a premium AR/VR headset will perform in the market. As revolutionary as the iPhone was, it’s momentum was driven by a very clear model for success when it was announced. Handheld devices like cell phones and iPods had already been selling like gangbusters for years and so everyone knew a device that served both roles just as well or better was also going to sell like gangbusters. The closest Apple product launches I can think of is the original Macintosh and the Newton. People didn’t quite know how they were going to use a personal computer, and they didn’t know how they were going to use a PDA. Personal computers didn’t become ubiquitous until the-mid 90s. PDAs never achieved true ubiquity and ended up being a stepping stone toward smartphones.

I don’t think AR/VR headsets are ever going to become ubiquitous, even if they are priced in the mid-hundreds, because I can’t imagine most people (many of which were hesitant about AirPods) will get comfortable strapping goggles over their face. That said, I don’t think ubiquity is the only measure of success. The Mac has never been ubiquitous. A headset that sells at low volumes, but becomes the de facto standard for professionals is still successful. A headset that over time gives Apple the chops to become the de facto standard in AR glasses, something that I think does have a high chance to become ubiquitous, is a no brainer.